Tariff turbulence: What if China ship charges become a reality? 

As the turbulence caused by Trump’s tariffs continues one week on, another new charge could be about to add to the already-considerable global uncertainty. As the US Trade Representative put it on March 21:

“Charges of up to $1.5 million per port call for ships built in China or operated by shipping companies that own ships built in China”.

This proposal would mean if a shipping company uses vessels constructed in China (or even merely owns just one China-built vessel), each time those ships dock at a US port, they would be subject to hefty extra charges… on top of the recently-announced tariffs.

This fee is not related to the cargo’s origin (for example, whether it's from China or Vietnam). It’s based purely on the origin of the vessel’s construction. For example, a vessel built in China but carrying cargo from Mexico or Europe would still face the fee. This is seen by many as problematic, because it penalizes decisions made years ago, when no such rule existed.

Although recent developments suggest not all of the threatened charges might actually be applied, in today's exceptional context, it never hurts to be prepared!

‍Potential risk: application as of April 17. If applied, what would that mean? 

Port congestions (High probability)

• Assumption:‍
  • Based on recent experience, similar sudden changes - like COVID, or tariff implementations - have in the past resulted in immediate and severe congestion at major ports
  • Major carriers will most likely reduce port calls to avoid heavy fees, leading them to consolidate cargo into fewer, larger ports (e.g., LA/Long Beach, New York). Smaller U.S. ports (e.g., Seattle, Mobile, Baltimore) will likely be skipped more frequently, shifting volumes to main gateways. More on this from Ryan Petersen, here.

• Probability after 17/04/2025: High.
  Carriers have explicitly indicated they will reroute and skip small ports to avoid fees, making congestion at primary ports highly likely, and creating bottlenecks for discharge and drayage operations.
  
  • Solution: -> Use Shippeo’s port congestion module to have a global vision on the latest vessel berth & anchorage dwell-time follow-up at all ports.
    

Increase in Air Shipments (Moderate probability)

• Assumption:
  
  • Historical precedent (such as disruptions during COVID and Suez Canal blockage) shows a significant spike in air freight use when ocean logistics are uncertain or delayed.
  • When ocean freight becomes expensive or unreliable, companies typically shift urgent or high-value cargo to air freight.
    
    • However, air freight is considerably more expensive, limiting broader adoption primarily to critical, time-sensitive, or high-margin goods
    • Not to mention the emissions impact.
      
      
• Probability after 17/04/2025: Moderate-to-High.
  Air freight demand will certainly increase, though mainly for specific categories of products. The increase may be constrained by air capacity limitations and substantially higher costs.
  
  • Solution -> Use Shippeo’s air tracking solution to track your shipments with up-to-date and real-time data flow. Leverage the data to increase the delivery reliability and service levels of your company.
    

Conclusion & Recommendation

Port congestion at major hubs is almost certain if this regulation moves forward. Depending on the booking, an accurate ETA at the Inland Destination, Rail Ramp or at Port will be a valuable input for better planning and informed decision making. 

Continuous monitoring of the congestion will be needed to plan the next batch of shipments. A noticeable rise in air shipments will occur, driven by operational urgency of high-value goods, and potential ocean delays, though this shift will be selective, due to cost.

Given these probabilities, it’s highly recommended to proactively plan your logistics strategy around congestion scenarios and secure air capacity for critical cargo early. 

By leveraging real-time transportation visibility, you can track your shipments in all modes end-to-end, booked individually or by the carrier. 

Start your journey and enhance the agility and responsiveness of your transport operations now, before supply chain disruptions become more costly.